{"id":4241,"date":"2026-05-23T10:16:52","date_gmt":"2026-05-23T10:16:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/untoldpages.in\/?p=4241"},"modified":"2026-05-23T10:17:30","modified_gmt":"2026-05-23T10:17:30","slug":"chapter-13-world-reborn-2050-2100-three-scenarios","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/untoldpages.in\/?p=4241","title":{"rendered":"CHAPTER 13 – WORLD REBORN\u00a0: 2050\u20132100: THREE SCENARIOS"},"content":{"rendered":"
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CHAPTER 13 – <\/span>WORLD REBORN\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/h2>\n

2050\u20132100: THREE SCENARIOS<\/span><\/h1>\n

The future is not predetermined. It will be shaped by choices made in the next decade\u2014choices about resource consumption, governance, technology, and social cohesion. This chapter synthesizes the research on plausible long-term trajectories, from the most likely to the most desirable but politically difficult.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

The Scenario Framework<\/span><\/h3>\n

Scenarios are not predictions. They are\u00a0<\/span>plausible stories about how the future may unfold<\/span><\/strong>, allowing us to explore the consequences of different choices\u00a0<\/span>. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) uses Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) for exactly this purpose\u2014narratives that consider social, economic, and technological factors alongside emissions trajectories\u00a0<\/span>.<\/span><\/p>\n

The three scenarios presented here synthesize multiple lines of evidence:<\/span><\/p>\n

\n
\n
<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Scenario<\/span><\/th>\nIPCC Analog<\/span><\/th>\nCore Dynamic<\/span><\/th>\nLikelihood Assessment<\/span><\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
Fragmented Resilience<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\nSSP2-4.5 \/ SSP3-7.0<\/span><\/td>\nFragmentation + adaptation<\/span><\/td>\nMost likely<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Abrupt Collapse + Long Recovery<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\nSSP5-8.5 (overshoot)<\/span><\/td>\nCascading failure > demographic crash<\/span><\/td>\nLow probability, high impact<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Managed Contraction<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\nSSP1-1.9 \/ SSP1-2.6<\/span><\/td>\nIntentional downscaling + high governance<\/span><\/td>\nDesirable but politically difficult<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n

Each scenario is examined through five dimensions:\u00a0<\/span>governance, economy, energy & materials, ecology, and human welfare<\/span><\/strong>.<\/span><\/p>\n

Scenario 1: Fragmented Resilience (Most Likely)<\/span><\/h3>\n

The Core Dynamic<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

The world does not “collapse” in any singular event. Instead, it\u00a0<\/span>fragments<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0into regional blocs, each pursuing its own survival strategy. Global governance institutions (UN, WTO, WHO) continue to exist but lack enforcement power. International cooperation becomes ad hoc and bilateral rather than multilateral\u00a0<\/span>.<\/span><\/p>\n

This scenario closely tracks the IPCC’s\u00a0<\/span>SSP2-4.5<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0(“Middle of the Road”) and\u00a0<\/span>SSP3-7.0<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0(“Regional Rivalry”) pathways, where warming reaches approximately\u00a0<\/span>2.7\u00b0C to 3.6\u00b0C by 2100<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0<\/span>.<\/span><\/p>\n

Governance<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

\n
\n
<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Feature<\/span><\/th>\nDescription<\/span><\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
Global Institutions<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\nLargely symbolic; no binding enforcement<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Regional Blocs<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\nNorth America, Europe, China-led Asia, India, Africa, Latin America\u2014each with distinct priorities<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Conflict Pattern<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\nResource competition (water, minerals, energy) but not total war; proxy conflicts<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Migration<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\nFortress world; Global North restricts immigration despite labor shortages\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n

The “Fractured World” literature describes this dynamic precisely: “Global institutions such as those in the United Nations system become increasingly ineffective… Regional institutions and governments are strengthened. The growing role of the economic regions, and their competing economic interests, lead to reduced inter-regional cooperation, increasing protectionism, and tight constraints on migration”\u00a0<\/span>.<\/span><\/p>\n

Economy<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

\n
\n
<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Feature<\/span><\/th>\nDescription<\/span><\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
Growth Pattern<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\nSlower; driven more by demographics than productivity<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Trade<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\nRegionalized; long-distance supply chains shortened<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Debt<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\nPeriodic restructuring; no global resolution<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Labor<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\nAI displaces routine work; care and local services expand<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n

In fragmented scenarios, “GDP per capita grows only slowly, but because of high population growth, aggregate GDP growth remains comparatively robust” in some regions. However, “international disparities in productivity, and hence income per capita, are largely maintained or increased in absolute terms”\u00a0<\/span>.<\/span><\/p>\n

Energy & Materials<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

\n
\n
<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Feature<\/span><\/th>\nDescription<\/span><\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
Energy Mix<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\nRegionally varied: solar\/wind dominant where feasible; coal and gas persist in resource-rich regions; nuclear expands unevenly<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Storage<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\nLag partially addressed by 2050s; hydrogen and pumped hydro fill gaps<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Critical Minerals<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\nSupply chains regionalized; recycling expands<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Efficiency<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\nGains continue but are partially offset by Jevons paradox<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n

Ecology<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

\n
\n
<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Feature<\/span><\/th>\nDescription<\/span><\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
Biodiversity<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\nContinued loss but at decelerating rate; some recovery in abandoned zones<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Climate<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n2.7-3.6\u00b0C warming; extreme events become normal; adaptation widespread but uneven<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Tipping Points<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\nSome crossed (Arctic summer ice-free, coral reef collapse); others approached but not triggered<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Carbon Removal<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\nDeployed at scale but insufficient to reverse warming<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n

Human Welfare<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

\n
\n
<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Feature<\/span><\/th>\nDescription<\/span><\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
Population<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\nPeaks mid-century (~9.7B), then slow decline<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Health<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\nUneven: wealthy regions adapt; poor regions suffer heat, disease, food stress<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Mental Health<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\nChronic instability persists; community-based support expands<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Inequality<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\nHigh but with strong local safety nets in some regions<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n

Why This Is Most Likely<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

The fragmented resilience scenario is most likely because it requires\u00a0<\/span>no dramatic breaks<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0from current trajectories. Demographic decline, regionalization, and institutional decay are already underway. No single catastrophe is required\u2014only the continuation of existing trends. As one analysis notes, “the world could become more focused on national and regional security issues, with no additional climate policy”\u00a0<\/span>.<\/span><\/p>\n

Scenario 2: Abrupt Collapse + Long Recovery<\/span><\/h3>\n

The Core Dynamic<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

A\u00a0<\/span>cascading failure<\/span><\/strong>\u2014simultaneous or sequential collapse of grids, finance, supply chains, and climate systems\u2014triggers a demographic crash exceeding 90 percent. Civilization does not end, but technological complexity drops to pre-industrial levels for a prolonged period\u00a0<\/span>.<\/span><\/p>\n

This scenario represents the high-end of IPCC’s\u00a0<\/span>SSP5-8.5<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0(“Fossil-fuelled Development”) pathway, where warming exceeds 4\u00b0C by 2100\u00a0<\/span>. However, collapse could occur earlier due to cascading failures before full warming is realized.<\/span><\/p>\n

The Cascading Failure Mechanism<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

The defining feature of abrupt collapse is\u00a0<\/span>non-linear threshold crossing<\/span><\/strong>. Systems that appear stable until the breaking point can fail simultaneously when interdependencies propagate shocks. Research on “lost options commitment” demonstrates that following moderate emission scenarios like SSP2-4.5 could “commit future generations to heavily rely on carbon dioxide removal or\/and solar radiation modification to avoid unmanageable sea level rise”\u2014and if those technologies fail or are not deployed, collapse becomes unavoidable\u00a0<\/span>.<\/span><\/p>\n

Governance<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

\n
\n
<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Phase<\/span><\/th>\nDescription<\/span><\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
Immediate (months)<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\nNational governments declare emergencies; military takes control of essential infrastructure<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Short-term (1-5 years)<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\nFragmentation into local governance; national authorities lose reach<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Medium-term (5-20 years)<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\nWarlordism, resource conflicts, population displacement<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Long-term (20-100 years)<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\nNew political formations emerge from the ashes<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n

Economy<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

\n
\n
<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Feature<\/span><\/th>\nDescription<\/span><\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
Currency<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\nCollapse of fiat money; barter, local scrip, and commodity money (ammo, fuel, medicine) dominate<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Trade<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\nNearly ceases; only essential goods move short distances<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Debt<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\nIrrelevant; financial system erased<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Labor<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\nManual and subsistence labor dominant; technical skills become rare and valuable<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n

Energy & Materials<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

\n
\n
<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Feature<\/span><\/th>\nDescription<\/span><\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
Fossil Fuels<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\nExtraction collapses; remaining reserves contested<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Renewables<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\nPanels and turbines degrade without maintenance<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Grids<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\nFragmented or non-existent; local microgrids survive<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Manufacturing<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\nCollapses to cottage-industry level; repair and salvage dominate<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n

Ecology<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

\n
\n
<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Feature<\/span><\/th>\nDescription<\/span><\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
Biodiversity<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\nInitial crash from pollution and habitat loss, then recovery as industrial pressure ceases<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Climate<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\nWarming continues due to inertia; feedback loops (permafrost melt, Amazon dieback) accelerate<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Recovery<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\nNature rebounds rapidly when human pressure drops; reforestation, wildlife resurgence<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n

Research on collapse-recovery dynamics confirms that “the resource depletion rate and the post-collapse recovery fraction are consistently the most impactful levers across scenarios”\u00a0<\/span>. A high depletion rate and low recovery fraction produce catastrophic outcomes.<\/span><\/p>\n

Human Welfare<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

\n
\n
<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Feature<\/span><\/th>\nDescription<\/span><\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
Population<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\nDecline of >90% from peak; survivors concentrated in favorable climates (high latitudes, high altitudes)<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Health<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\nMedical systems collapse; life expectancy plummets<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Knowledge<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\nMassive loss of technical and scientific knowledge; oral traditions re-emerge<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Recovery Timeline<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\nMultiple generations; some regions may never recover technological complexity<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n

Probability Assessment<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

This scenario is\u00a0<\/span>low probability but high impact<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0in the near term (2026-2050). However, its probability increases if key thresholds are crossed. As the Blanco et al. civilization modeling shows, “modest improvements” in resource management and recovery planning “can qualitatively alter long-term trajectories”\u2014meaning collapse is not inevitable, but neither is it impossible\u00a0<\/span>.<\/span><\/p>\n

The Limits to Growth “standard” business-as-usual scenario from 1972 projected “rather sudden and uncontrollable decline in both population and industrial capacity” beginning around 2020-2030\u2014a timeline that independent 2014 and 2020 analyses found we have been tracking closely\u00a0<\/span>. That scenario has not been disproven. It is unfolding.<\/span><\/p>\n

Scenario 3: Managed Contraction (Best Outcome, Hardest Path)<\/span><\/h3>\n

The Core Dynamic<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Also known as\u00a0<\/span>“Managed System Descent”<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0or\u00a0<\/span>“Managed System Contraction”<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0, this scenario describes the deliberate, planned, equitable reduction of material and energy throughput to align human activity with planetary boundaries\u00a0<\/span>.<\/span><\/p>\n

This scenario corresponds to IPCC’s\u00a0<\/span>SSP1-1.9<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0and\u00a0<\/span>SSP1-2.6<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0(“Sustainability”) pathways, where warming is limited to 1.5-1.8\u00b0C, net zero CO2 emissions are reached by 2050, and social, economic, and technological trends shift toward “more inclusive development that respects environmental boundaries”\u00a0<\/span>.<\/span><\/p>\n

Governance<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

\n
\n
<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Feature<\/span><\/th>\nDescription<\/span><\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
Global Institutions<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\nReformed with enforcement power; binding commitments on emissions, resource use, biodiversity<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Decision-Making<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\nPolycentric; local, regional, and global levels with clear authority<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Democratic Participation<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\nExpanded; citizen assemblies, deliberative processes, digital voting experiments<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Migration<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\nManaged and equitable; Global North accepts climate migrants with pathways to integration<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n

The theoretical framework for managed contraction emphasizes that it is “not passive decline or chaotic failure; it is active, anticipatory governance over the material metabolism of civilization”\u00a0<\/span>. It requires distinguishing between “undesirable systemic collapse\u2014a high-entropy state marked by violence and inequity\u2014and a low-entropy, high-equity deceleration guided by ecological intelligence”\u00a0<\/span>.<\/span><\/p>\n

Economy<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

\n
\n
<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Feature<\/span><\/th>\nDescription<\/span><\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
Growth Paradigm<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\nAbandoned; replaced by “well-being within planetary boundaries”<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Metrics<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\nBeyond GDP: health, education, ecological health, leisure time<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Debt<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\nRestructured with intergenerational fairness; carbon and resource debts forgiven<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Work<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\nShorter hours; labor reallocated to care, restoration, maintenance; AI augments rather than replaces<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n

The managed contraction literature specifies concrete policy mechanisms: “throughput quotas and capping” on resource extraction, “planned obsolescence prohibition” mandating product durability, “financial system re-orientation” away from lending for expansion, and “shifting taxation” from labor to virgin resource extraction\u00a0<\/span>.<\/span><\/p>\n

Energy & Materials<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

\n
\n
<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Feature<\/span><\/th>\nDescription<\/span><\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
Throughput<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\nPlanned reduction of 50-70% from peak<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Energy Mix<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n100% renewable + nuclear; storage fully deployed<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Circularity<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\nNear-complete material recycling and reuse<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Infrastructure<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\nDecommissioning of high-throughput systems; investment in regenerative alternatives<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n

The goal is to establish “a durable, long-term relationship between human metabolism and planetary resilience”\u00a0<\/span>. This is not about “green growth”\u2014which some scholars argue is “a thermodynamic impossibility”\u2014but about “planned, equitable reduction”\u00a0<\/span>.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ecology<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

\n
\n
<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Feature<\/span><\/th>\nDescription<\/span><\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
Biodiversity<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\nActive restoration; net gain by 2080<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Climate<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\nWarming limited to 1.5-1.8\u00b0C; some overshoot then gradual decline via carbon removal<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Tipping Points<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\nMost avoided; critical systems (Amazon, Arctic) stabilized<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Land Use<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\nRewilding on 30-50% of previously agricultural land; agroecology on the rest<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n

Human Welfare<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

\n
\n
<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Feature<\/span><\/th>\nDescription<\/span><\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
Population<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\nStabilizes at 8-9B; voluntary fertility decline supported by education and equity<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Health<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\nUniversal healthcare; mental health prioritized; stress reduced by stability<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Education<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\nLifelong learning; critical thinking and resilience core curricula<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Inequality<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\nDrastically reduced; maximum income ratios; universal basic services<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n

The Political Challenge<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Managed contraction is the\u00a0<\/span>most desirable outcome<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0but the\u00a0<\/span>hardest to achieve<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0politically. It requires:<\/span><\/p>\n

    \n
  1. \n

    Short-term sacrifice for long-term gain<\/span><\/strong>\u2014politically toxic in democratic systems<\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

  2. \n

    Overcoming entrenched interests<\/span><\/strong>\u2014fossil fuel, automobile, agribusiness, finance<\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

  3. \n

    Global coordination<\/span><\/strong>\u2014the most difficult collective action problem ever attempted<\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

  4. \n

    Cultural shift<\/span><\/strong>\u2014from accumulation to sufficiency, from individualism to interdependence<\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    As the Limits to Growth analysis concluded, the scenarios that aligned least closely with empirical data were the most optimistic ones\u2014suggesting that “humanity is on a path to having limits to growth imposed on itself rather than consciously choosing its own”\u00a0<\/span>.<\/span><\/p>\n

    Why It Might Still Happen<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

    Despite the political barriers, managed contraction could emerge through:<\/span><\/p>\n